Lightning Joe - a piece of work
Sadr But Wiser
posted Monday, 31 March 2008
Sadr cut a deal. That's the only conclusion I see right now.
The U.S. has been pushing the idea lately, that Sadr's long-running cease-fire hasn't really been that instrumental in the (apparent) easing of tensions in Iraq. U.S. opinion makers seem to have been trying to marginalize Sadr lately, saying that he hasn't really been that instrumental in the easing of tensions. Maybe they should have thought that one out, a bit. Sadr's recent "un-cease-fire" in Basra was likely, in part, an attempt to show everyone involved what the place will be like without the restraint he's been exhibiting -- a timely reminder, if you will.
And as late as Friday, prospects of a continuation, or furthering, of the relative lack of hostilities was looking pretty dim. Indeed, given tensions elsewhere in Iraq, it was beginning to look as if a widespread conflagration was in the offing. Prime Minister Malaki first blustered at Sadr to cease and desist; and then backed off, when Sadr basically laughed in his face.
So why, this morning, do we hear that Sadr is suddenly reigning in his troops; and with rather strong penalties for non-compliance, yet? (Expulsion from the Mahdi Army as the penalty!)
I personally think that Sadr must have been angling all along for a more direct role in the government; a role more central than the fringe-militia-chief seat he's held for years. This was a reminder, meant to get the government's attention. What's more, it seems to me that his offer has been accepted.
I'm really just going on a hunch here, but I won't be surprised if Sadr soon slides into the Green Zone, in some capacity. I still don't get a sense of who's paid him off, though. I think Malaki had the most to lose from the continuing conflict, but the Iraq conflict's U.S.-domestic credibility (the only kind we have left, in this sorry circus) absolutely depends on keeping down the "lead pollution" all across Iraq.
It might have been a joint realization, on the parts of Malaki and U.S. commanders, that buying Sadr off would be a small additional expense, for keeping the "benefits" of the surge coming in. We're paying off the whole country now; not to fight each other or us.
Look for more mention of Sadr, in the news from Iraq.
The U.S. has been pushing the idea lately, that Sadr's long-running cease-fire hasn't really been that instrumental in the (apparent) easing of tensions in Iraq. U.S. opinion makers seem to have been trying to marginalize Sadr lately, saying that he hasn't really been that instrumental in the easing of tensions. Maybe they should have thought that one out, a bit. Sadr's recent "un-cease-fire" in Basra was likely, in part, an attempt to show everyone involved what the place will be like without the restraint he's been exhibiting -- a timely reminder, if you will.
And as late as Friday, prospects of a continuation, or furthering, of the relative lack of hostilities was looking pretty dim. Indeed, given tensions elsewhere in Iraq, it was beginning to look as if a widespread conflagration was in the offing. Prime Minister Malaki first blustered at Sadr to cease and desist; and then backed off, when Sadr basically laughed in his face.
So why, this morning, do we hear that Sadr is suddenly reigning in his troops; and with rather strong penalties for non-compliance, yet? (Expulsion from the Mahdi Army as the penalty!)
I personally think that Sadr must have been angling all along for a more direct role in the government; a role more central than the fringe-militia-chief seat he's held for years. This was a reminder, meant to get the government's attention. What's more, it seems to me that his offer has been accepted.
I'm really just going on a hunch here, but I won't be surprised if Sadr soon slides into the Green Zone, in some capacity. I still don't get a sense of who's paid him off, though. I think Malaki had the most to lose from the continuing conflict, but the Iraq conflict's U.S.-domestic credibility (the only kind we have left, in this sorry circus) absolutely depends on keeping down the "lead pollution" all across Iraq.
It might have been a joint realization, on the parts of Malaki and U.S. commanders, that buying Sadr off would be a small additional expense, for keeping the "benefits" of the surge coming in. We're paying off the whole country now; not to fight each other or us.
Look for more mention of Sadr, in the news from Iraq.
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